Question → hypothesis → data → conclusion. No opinions.
An ETF allocation method for European retail investors: read macro regimes, build robust exposure, and manage with discipline — without predicting the markets.
Published 2026-04-09 · Updated 2026-04-09
Why Cap Nord exists: a discipline for riding out the cycles, organizing a robust allocation, and acting without depending on a single story.
Published 2026-04-09 · Updated 2026-04-09
Macro analysis and ETF portfolios for European retail investors — read the regime in the prices (real rate, market trend), structure a robust allocation, and manage without storytelling.
Published 2026-05-18 · Updated 2026-07-05
Stocks are unpredictable: we follow the trend (Faber). Macro is explained by the real rate (Wicksell, Barsky-Summers) but always lags — so we read the regime in the prices.
Published 2026-04-08 · Updated 2026-06-30
Cap Nord's asset matrix doesn't cross growth with inflation — it crosses the real rate with the market trend. How it reads, what it shows, and what it doesn't do.
Published 2026-04-08 · Updated 2026-06-30
We tested the growth × inflation grid over 1871-2026 and 47 countries. It's persistent but doesn't robustly discriminate returns: under a rotation test, bond significance drops from 94% to 27%. What we read instead.
Published 2026-06-12 · Updated 2026-07-10
The classic grid splits the economy into 4 regimes by inflation and growth. Intuitive — but under test, it doesn't sort what it claims to. Here's where it cracks and what we read instead.
Published 2026-04-08 · Updated 2026-06-30
A robust portfolio doesn't predict: it assembles assets with complementary roles (equities, bonds, gold, cash) to stay viable across regimes. A descriptive reading.
Published 2026-04-08 · Updated 2026-06-30
Build a robust allocation with Cap Nord: separate the decision (allocation, exposures) from the execution (the instrument), and structure it to hold across regimes.
Published 2026-04-08 · Updated 2026-07-10
The asset map colors each country by how consistently an asset class has held up in its regime — read from the real rate and the market trend. Descriptive.
Published 2026-04-08 · Updated 2026-07-10
Gold is the base: over the long run, no currency beats gold. A bond is a bonus when its trend measured in gold rises and the country is serious. And in a crash, the only cushion left is gold. A descriptive reading.
Published 2026-07-02 · Updated 2026-07-11
Volatility measures how much a price fidgets; risk is the loss that doesn't come back. A calm asset can be dangerous, a jumpy one can be robust. Descriptive.
Published 2026-04-08 · Updated 2026-07-11
A market price is a balance of flows, not a verdict on value. It can stay disconnected from fundamentals for years — which is why we follow the trend without mistaking 'it's rising' for 'it's solid'. Descriptive.
Published 2026-04-08 · Updated 2026-07-11
Inflation, growth, rates, employment, asset classes, units: what we actually read to characterize a country's regime without being tripped up by the currency or the short term.
Published 2026-04-08 · Updated 2026-07-11
I believed in trading, then I did the honest math. Most retail accounts lose, the house collects, and the real business is selling you the method.
Published 2026-07-13 · Updated 2026-07-13
Ichimoku, RSI, stochastics run through decades of backtests: the crude signal outlasts the sophisticated one, and tax finishes the rest. A descriptive read.
Published 2026-07-13 · Updated 2026-07-13
If almost every retail trader loses, who wins at trading? The house, the method seller, the structural professional — never the drawing on the chart.
Published 2026-07-13 · Updated 2026-07-13
Every round trip a trader makes realizes a gain — and a tax. The one who holds defers it all. The flat tax hands victory back to buy-and-hold.
Published 2026-07-13 · Updated 2026-07-13
