Six reference allocations, measured across every 20, 30 and 40-year period since 1962. This tool does not compute your rate: it shows the range of what held, and what decided it. Nothing you type is stored.
Used only to turn rates into amounts. Nothing is stored.
Six public, static allocations. None of them is a Cap Nord allocation.
380 starting periods, from 1962-03 to 2023-09. Each period yields an amount: here they all are.
Worst period
19 100 €
P10
20 050 €
Median
22 700 €
P90
24 800 €
Best period
28 100 €
That is 1 592 € to 1 892 € per month, depending on the starting period.
The low point (3,82 % of capital) is a minimum: a single period produced it, the one starting in 1974-04. A minimum is fragile by construction — it describes what happened once, not what will happen again.
In a Securities account, the gap to the same portfolio before tax is -0,89 point at the low end and -0,99 point at the median.
B&H 100% actions has the highest annualised return in the table. It is not the one that allowed the largest withdrawal.
| Allocation | Worst period | Median | Annualised return | Maximum drawdown | Annual amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browne Permanent | 3,82 % | 4,54 % | 7,2 % | -13 % | 19 100 € |
| Bogleheads 3-fonds | 3,44 % | 5,79 % | 8,6 % | -40 % | 17 200 € |
| Dalio All-Weather | 3,43 % | 4,92 % | 7,5 % | -17 % | 17 150 € |
| B&H 100% actions | 3,24 % | 6,39 % | 10,1 % | -49 % | 16 200 € |
| Épargnant 60/40 | 3,11 % | 5,72 % | 8,5 % | -27 % | 15 550 € |
| Taleb Antifragile | 2,75 % | 4,33 % | 6 % | -21 % | 13 750 € |
The ranking follows the low end of the range. Maximum drawdown explains the order better than return does.
Low end by horizon, wrapper held constant.
| Allocation | 20 years | 30 years | 40 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browne Permanent | 5,06 % | 3,82 % | 3,24 % |
| Bogleheads 3-fonds | 4,22 % | 3,44 % | 3,13 % |
| Dalio All-Weather | 4,59 % | 3,43 % | 2,97 % |
| B&H 100% actions | 3,89 % | 3,24 % | 3,04 % |
| Épargnant 60/40 | 4,04 % | 3,11 % | 2,83 % |
| Taleb Antifragile | 3,74 % | 2,75 % | 2,36 % |
The sets of periods differ between horizons: read a column, not a row.
Ending at zero versus keeping the capital intact in purchasing power, over 30 years, before tax.
| Allocation | End at zero | Capital intact | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browne Permanent | 4,59 % | 2,75 % | 1,84 pt |
| Bogleheads 3-fonds | 4,05 % | 2,82 % | 1,24 pt |
| Dalio All-Weather | 4,06 % | 2,40 % | 1,66 pt |
| B&H 100% actions | 3,70 % | 2,86 % | 0,83 pt |
| Épargnant 60/40 | 3,65 % | 2,37 % | 1,29 pt |
| Taleb Antifragile | 3,21 % | 1,36 % | 1,85 pt |
“Capital intact”: the rate that leaves as much purchasing power at the end as at the start. This block is measured with continuous rebalancing, unlike the range above: the two are not comparable row by row.
11 of 16 countries fall below 3 %. France is at 0,32 %, the United States at 3,75 %.
| Country | Worst period | Median | Maximum drawdown | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 0,15 % | 5,76 % | -30 % | 133 |
| France | 0,32 % | 2,69 % | -47 % | 151 |
| Portugal | 0,43 % | 4,13 % | -76 % | 150 |
| Germany | 0,49 % | 6,25 % | -43 % | 146 |
| Italy | 1,06 % | 3,47 % | -32 % | 151 |
| Belgium | 1,11 % | 4,32 % | -42 % | 145 |
| Finland | 1,44 % | 5,39 % | -30 % | 125 |
| Spain | 1,68 % | 3,97 % | -36 % | 117 |
| Sweden | 2,32 % | 5,73 % | -33 % | 150 |
| Norway | 2,61 % | 3,75 % | -33 % | 140 |
| UK | 2,93 % | 5,10 % | -49 % | 150 |
| Switzerland | 3,19 % | 5,44 % | -29 % | 120 |
| Netherlands | 3,24 % | 5,01 % | -32 % | 121 |
| Australia | 3,33 % | 5,93 % | -33 % | 121 |
| Denmark | 3,69 % | 5,47 % | -24 % | 147 |
| USA | 3,75 % | 6,25 % | -36 % | 149 |
60/40 statique allocation, 30-year horizon, withdrawal indexed to local inflation.
Descriptive, historical analysis. This content does not constitute investment advice, a personalised recommendation or a forecast. Past performance does not predict future performance.
